Eli Lifland

Me elsewhere

• Blog
• Twitter
• Google Scholar
• Linkedin
• Github
• Anonymous Feedback

Career

I'm working on AGI forecasting and governance with the AI Futures Project. I advise Sage, an organization I cofounded working on AI explainers (as of 2026, mostly focused on the AI Village) and forecasting tools.

I previously worked at Ought on the AI research assistant Elicit.

Selected work

Some work that I've (co-)authored that I am happiest about:

• AI 2027: A detailed AGI scenario forecast
• AI Futures Model: Timelines and Takeoff
• My take on What We Owe the Future
• Eli's review of "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?"
• Discussing how to align Transformative AI if it’s developed very soon

Improving outcomes of superhuman AIs

I've decided to work on improving outcomes of superhuman AIs because I think it's both the most important problem we face, and furthermore I find it interesting. If you'd like to help, I've written a post with advice: What you can do about AI 2027.

I also consider myself part of the effective altruism movement, which aims to use reason and evidence to improve the world as much as possible (this doesn't mean I endorse every action prominent effective altruists or effective altruism orgniazations take!). I've taken the Giving What We Can Pledge to donate at least 10% of my lifetime income to whatever I think is the most effective use of my money, and ideas I learned about due to effective altruism have had a large impact on my career decisions.

Forecasting

I'm interested in judgmental forecasting as a route to improved decision making. I recommend Superforecasting for an introduction, but I think it overclaims in some ways (e.g. regarding generalists vs. expertise). I co-lead the Samotsvety Forecasting team. My forecasting track record is described here. Some takes on forecasting/epistemics interventions as of March 2024 here.

AI robustness research

During my last year of college, I co-created TextAttack, a Python framework for adversarial attacks in NLP. See the paper or blog post. We also published a paper arguing for stricter evaluation of adversarial examples in NLP. While at Ought, I co-created the RAFT Benchmark.

Education

I have degrees in computer science and economics from the University of Virginia.

Miscellany

Battlecode

I competed in Battlecode for several years, a competition for high-school and college students to program the best bot to win a strategy game. My team advanced to the top 4 3 out of 6 years. See the README here for more.

Clash Royale

During the end of high school and beginning of college, I played a lot of Clash Royale, a mobile game. I did well in a few competitions and built up a bit of a following before quitting.

Speedcubing

During middle school and early in high school, I spent a lot of time solving Rubik's cubes as fast as I could (and doing them one-handed and blindfolded). My WCA profile is here; I was decent but not world class.